Google is actually a very fragile company
All of Google is kept afloat by one thing only. Adwords. More than 90% of Google's revenue comes from search ads and related services. They have no other significant source of income after a decade or more of trying to diversify. Every other business is borderline trivial when compared to AdWords. All the moonshots have failed. All the R&D has failed. It's. All. AdWords.
They are ripe for disruption from a new player, or alternatively, to be drained from a few deep pocketed rivals. The entire bubble of online advertising stems from a belief that is often irrational that online advertising is effective at certain definitions of cost effectiveness.
If the company does not alter its business model then the future potential of the business could be measured as a function of Internet (ex. China) population growth. Essentially the argument is that Google’s growth is ultimately limited by the population of users and that itself is a predictable number.
Google will have a very difficult time maintaining their per-user profit figures as companies realize they don't need to run their ads through Google search, and Google has to adjust pricing to account for those alternatives.
With apologies to the innovation fans in the crowd, it's very difficult to show any meaningful impact from (say) self-driving cars in the next five years against a $60B revenue base. Total sales of new cars and trucks in the US is only about $300B annually, and if we use Tesla sales as proxy for autonomous vehicles, the near-term market is less than 1% of that.
(For example, a Lidar system of the type used by Google in a "low cost" configuration presently costs $25,000. Just for the Lidar system.
Interesting enough too Google is doing an in house study to learn how people work and kind of astounding that after so many years of hiring "people" they don't have a clue how we work:)